By Hasan

Persistent cross-border tensions and security frictions between Pakistan and Afghanistan are increasingly evolving into a low-intensity conflict environment, posing risks to regional trade flows and undermining critical transit connectivity plans linking Pakistan with Central Asia and beyond.

Pakistan’s efforts to expand trade and transit corridors depend heavily on stable relations with Afghanistan, making continued bilateral strain a broader challenge for commerce and regional integration. Analysts say Pakistan’s wider connectivity agenda will remain difficult to advance without stable conditions along the Pakistan-Afghanistan route and sustained engagement with Kabul.

Afghanistan remains central to Pakistan’s connectivity strategy with Central Asia. Several major regional projects that underpin this vision rely on transit through Afghan territory.

According to Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, these include the $1.2 billion Central Asia-South Asia (CASA-1000) power project, the 760-kilometre Trans-Afghan Railway Project linking Uzbekistan with Pakistani seaports and expected to reduce transit time by around 30%, the $10 billion Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline with a planned annual capacity of 33 billion cubic metres, and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan power transmission route.

The State Bank of Pakistan reports that Pakistan’s trade with the Central Asian Republics stood at $139.673 million during July-February FY2025-26, reflecting both the potential and the existing limitations of regional trade integration. Prolonged instability between Pakistan and Afghanistan, therefore, threatens not only bilateral trade but also the broader network of transit corridors and energy routes on which Pakistan’s regional connectivity ambitions depend.

Speaking with Wealth Pakistan, Professor Adam Saud, a professor of international relations at Bahria University, said border tensions have disrupted trade flows and complicated Pakistan’s commercial links with Central Asian states. He noted that the disruption has come at a sensitive time, when Central Asian countries are seeking to expand trade with Pakistan and use it as a transit corridor for wider international commerce. He warned that continued conflict conditions could delay the Trans-Afghan Railway Project, a key component of long-term regional integration.

Saud said Pakistan may increasingly rely on alternative routes, including air cargo and trade through Chinese territory, to maintain commercial links with Central Asia. He pointed out that while Pakistan has used the Chinese route for exports to Kazakhstan, such alternatives remain more expensive than the Afghan transit route. He added that the Iranian route, previously used for trade with Central Asian Republics, has also become less reliable amid broader regional uncertainty.

However, he stressed that these alternatives can only serve as temporary adjustments. Sustainable regional connectivity, he said, cannot be fully realised without Afghanistan’s integration into regional trade frameworks. Dr Rubina Waseem, Associate Professor of International Studies at the National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad, highlighted the importance of sustained diplomatic engagement.

She said countries such as China can play a role in maintaining dialogue and helping both sides institutionalise communication channels, reducing the risk of recurring crises. According to her, economic integration itself can act as a stabilising factor. Extending connectivity initiatives linked to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor into Afghanistan could create shared economic incentives for stability.

She also pointed to the importance of intelligence-sharing and joint border-management mechanisms, supported by platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, to address cross-border security concerns in a structured manner. Muhammad Jahanzeb Akmal, Assistant Professor of International Relations at Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, said political instability and governance challenges in Afghanistan continue to strain bilateral relations and limit economic potential.

Despite these constraints, he said long-term economic logic still favours engagement, as Pakistan’s access to Central Asia and the western route of CPEC remain closely tied to Afghanistan. He emphasised that policymakers on both sides need to separate strategic differences from economic priorities, noting that functional economic relations are essential for unlocking trade, transit, and regional connectivity.

Credit: INP-WealthPk