By Ayesha Saba

Pakistan’s development project backlog has surged to Rs10.818 trillion, highlighting the growing challenge of completing hundreds of ongoing public-sector schemes amid limited fiscal resources.

According to a presentation prepared for the Annual Plan Coordination Committee (APCC), the federal development portfolio’s throw-forward — the amount required to complete approved but unfinished projects — has reached Rs10.818 trillion in FY2025-26.

The figure represents a sharp increase from Rs8.2 trillion recorded at the beginning of the current fiscal year. The presentation attributes the rise primarily to revisions and expected revisions to the costs of major infrastructure and water-sector projects, including Diamer Bhasha Dam, Dasu Hydropower Project, Mohmand Dam and Tarbela 5th Extension.

Official data show that the backlog has expanded substantially over the past decade. Throw-forward stood at Rs3.245 trillion in FY2013-14 before increasing to Rs4.847 trillion in FY2014-15. It reached Rs5.812 trillion in FY2017-18 and remained above Rs5 trillion in subsequent years before accelerating sharply in recent years.

The backlog rose to Rs7.879 trillion in FY2022-23, increased further to Rs8.701 trillion in FY2023-24 and climbed to Rs10.145 trillion in FY2024-25 before reaching the current level of Rs10.818 trillion.

The presentation indicates that the federal development portfolio currently consists of 786 projects with a combined cost of Rs15.865 trillion. Despite annual PSDP allocations, the amount required to complete these projects continues to grow.

Of the total portfolio, 197 large projects classified as “Rocks” account for Rs10.065 trillion, or more than 93% of the overall throw-forward. These projects include major transport, water, energy and strategic infrastructure schemes.

The document shows that while the PSDP allocation for FY2025-26 stands at Rs1 trillion, the requirement for ongoing projects in FY2026-27 alone is estimated at Rs3.377 trillion, illustrating the scale of the financing challenge facing policymakers.

The National Highway Authority accounts for a substantial portion of future requirements. Major projects such as N-25, M-6 Sukkur-Hyderabad Motorway, M-8, N-5 and the realignment of the Karakoram Highway collectively require hundreds of billions of rupees for completion.

Similarly, major water-sector projects continue to add to the backlog. Diamer Bhasha Dam alone has a throw-forward of Rs1.097 trillion, while Dasu Hydropower Project carries a remaining liability of Rs634.9 billion and Mohmand Dam Rs532.4 billion.

The railway sector also contributes significantly to future financing needs. The Main Line-1 (ML-1) project carries a throw-forward of Rs1.97 trillion, making it one of the largest commitments within the federal development portfolio.

According to the presentation, the growing backlog reflects the accumulation of long-term commitments across multiple sectors. As new projects are added and existing schemes undergo cost revisions, the amount required for completion continues to rise.

The document notes that managing the expanding throw-forward will remain a major challenge for development planners as they seek to balance ongoing commitments with available fiscal resources in the coming years.

Credit: INP-WealthPk