Moaaz Manzoor

Pakistan’s merchandise exports dropped sharply in November 2025, while imports also declined, according to the data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Tuesday, which showed a significantly wider cumulative trade deficit for FY26.

Exports in November 2025 totaled Rs673,260 million (approximately $2,398 million) compared to Rs800,551 million (approximately $2,848 million) in October 2025. This represented a 15.9% decline in rupee terms and 15.80% in dollar terms, reflecting weaker external demand and reduced shipment volumes.

Imports in November 2025 totaled Rs1,476,801 million (approximately $5,253 million), down from Rs1,713,648 million (approximately $6,087 million) in October. This showed a contraction of 13.82% in rupee terms and 13.70% in dollar terms, indicating a softer import demand after months of elevated inflows.

With both exports and imports falling, the monthly trade deficit narrowed moderately. The deficit stood at Rs803,541 million (or $2,855 million) in November, improving from Rs913,097 million (or $3,239 million) recorded in October, a reduction of 12.00% in rupee terms and 11.86% in dollar terms, driven by a sharper drop in imports.

However, the cumulative trade position for the fiscal year remained considerably weaker. Between July and November 2025, total exports reached Rs3,623,376 million (or $12,844 million), compared with Rs3,815,895 million (or $13,721 million) in the same period of FY24. This reflected a decline of 5.05% in rupees and 6.39% in dollars, highlighting persistent challenges on the export front.

Imports during July–November 2025 rose sharply to Rs7,993,478 million (or $28,313 million) from Rs6,953,374 million (or $24,998 million) recorded in July–November 2024. This represented an increase of 14.96% in rupee terms and 13.26% in dollar terms, driven by higher fuel inflows and stronger demand for industrial inputs.

Consequently, the FY26 cumulative trade deficit widened substantially. Pakistan posted a deficit of Rs4,370,102 million (or $15,469 million) during July–November 2025, compared with Rs3,137,479 million (or $11,277 million) in the same period last year — an expansion of 39.29% in rupee terms and 37.17% in dollar terms, underscoring mounting pressure on the external sector.

The Bureau noted that some data from DRS, FBR Islamabad, for November 2025 was still awaited and cautioned that the rounding may cause slight differences in totals.

Analysts view the improvement in the monthly deficit as stemming from temporary import compression, warning that the sharp rise in cumulative imports remains a key concern. They added that Pakistan’s external position will depend on export recovery, competitiveness, and stricter management of non-essential imports.

Credit: INP-WealthPk