2023-24: revised GDP estimates show agricultural resilience

May 24, 2024

Arooj Zulfiqar

The National Accounts Committee (NAC) has approved the quarterly GDP growth rates for FY2023-24 and annual growth rates for FY2021-22, FY2022-23, and FY2023-24, presenting new insights into the economic performance of the country, according to WealthPK. The 109th meeting of the committee was held at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) Headquarters, Islamabad chaired by secretary of planning, development and special initiatives (PD&SI). The committee revised the GDP growth rates for the first and second quarters of FY2023-24. The revised growth for Q1 and Q2 for FY2023-24 is 2.71% and 1.79%, respectively as compared to the estimated 2.50% and 1.0% approved in the 108th NAC meeting. The agriculture sector played a significant role in these revisions. In Q1, agricultural growth remained stable at 8.59%, slightly up from the earlier 8.58%. However, Q2 witnessed a notable improvement, with growth increasing from 5.02% to 5.83%, driven by significant upward revisions in important crops (from 8.12% to 12.92%) and other crops (from -0.31% to 0.65%). For Q3 of FY2023-24, the economy posted a stable growth of 2.09%.

The agriculture sector continued to contribute positively with a growth rate of 3.94%, supported by increases in important crops (2.89%, primarily due to wheat), other crops (1.14%), cotton ginning (61.75%), and livestock (4.20%). The industrial sector also showed a robust growth of 3.84%, while the services sector grew by 0.83%. The committee approved the final annual GDP growth rate for FY2021-22 at 6.18%, a slight increase from the previously estimated 6.17%. The agriculture sector's final growth rate for the same period was confirmed at 4.21%. For Fiscal Year 2022-23, the revised GDP growth rate was adjusted to -0.21% from the previously estimated -0.17%. Despite this overall negative growth, the agricultural sector showed a minor improvement, with growth revised from 2.25% to 2.27%. Looking ahead, the committee approved a provisional GDP growth rate of 2.38% for the ongoing FY2023-24.

The agriculture sector is expected to see substantial growth at 6.25%, largely due to the impressive performance of key crops. Wheat production increased by 11.64% (from 28.16 to 31.44 million tons), cotton by 108.22% (from 4.91 to 10.22 million bales), and rice by 34.78% (from 7.32 to 9.87 million tons). However, sugarcane and maize production saw declines of -0.39% and -10.35%, respectively. The provisional growth in other crops stands at 0.90%, with cotton ginning and miscellaneous components showing a significant increase of 47.23%. Livestock and forestry sectors also contributed positively, with growth rates of 3.89% and 3.05%, respectively. The National Accounts Committee's revised and provisional estimates reflect a mixed yet optimistic outlook for Pakistan's economic performance, with significant contributions from the agriculture sector playing a crucial role in driving growth.

Credit: INP-WealthPk