INP-WealthPk

Confidence of investors hangs in balance after PM's China visit

November 18, 2018

KARACHI, Nov 17 (INP) - In an outgoing week, ‎trading commenced on a negative note ‎partly carried from the previous week as investors were ‎doubtful about the success of the Prime minister s visit to ‎China.‎ Another round of negotiations between Pakistani and Chinese ‎which did not yield any tangible positive outcome yet forced ‎the index to slide. ‎ In addition to this, MSCI reduced Pakistan s weight to 0.046% ‎after down grading Lucky Cement and UBL from main index to ‎small index and deleted Honda Car and Maple Leaf Cement ‎from small index. However, the index rebound post MSCI ‎announcement on last two trading days due to domestic ‎financial institutions and high net worth individuals showing ‎interest which pushed the index upwards. ‎ The benchmark KSE-100 rose by 272 points or 0.66 percent to ‎close at 41,661 points.‎ During the week foreigners were net sellers amounting to $24.1 ‎million versus $9.4 million in the previous week, this is their ‎‎28th consecutive-week of foreign selling. While on local front, ‎Mutual Funds and individuals were net buyers of $9.2 million.  ‎ Top five best performing sectors during the week were ‎Commercial Banks up by 193 points amid rate hike expected by ‎‎100 basis points in upcoming monetary policy, Cements 94 ‎points due to declining international coal prices by 3 percent ‎and Chemical 42 points given healthy margins. ‎ While, sectors that contributed negatively to the index were Oil ‎and Gas Exploration and Production drop by 78 points due to ‎slump in international oil prices by 9 percent, Technology and ‎Communication 32 points, and Food and Personal Care 16 m ‎points. ‎ ‎"We expect the market to remain range bound given lack of ‎positive triggers ahead. Unfavorable economic conditions ‎owing to higher current account deficit, depleting foreign ‎exchange reserves and expectation of another rate hike of 100 ‎basis points in the upcoming monetary policy are also likely to ‎keep investors cautious", an analyst from Arif Habib Securities ‎said. ‎ However, any positive announcement from Prime Minister s ‎visit to Malaysia (which is expected on 20th Nov) could provide ‎some confidence to the investor sentiment.‎ ‎"We expect the key trigger for the index will be the ‎deliberations with IMF for a fresh funding arrangement", said ‎an analyst from Habib Metro Finance Services. Strict ‎requirements on the fiscal reform/elimination of subsidies ‎front and imposition of new taxes will be a key hurdle, but ‎once the details come out in the open the benchmark index ‎should find potent reasons to register a fresh rally An analyst from BMA Capital Management said we maintain ‎our liking in export oriented/dollarized revenue stream related ‎sectors with minimal leverage. Recent weakness in oil prices ‎has opened up valuations warranting a BUY stance across E&P ‎names with cherry picking in fertilizers, textiles and some ‎heavily battered financial blue chips, he said.‎ Inp/khan