Faiza Tehseen

The Indian government’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) unilaterally could have serious ecological consequences on Pakistan.

"Forests play a crucial role in tackling environmental challenges as they are not only the potential carbon sink but are the significant ecological areas. If India stops the Indus River flow, the irrigated forestry in Pakistan, particularly in Sindh and Punjab provinces, will be gravely affected,” notes Muhammad Aatif Majeed, Deputy Director (Technical), Pakistan Forest Institute, Peshawar.

Speaking to WealthPK, he said that the Indus River feeds all the wetlands of Sindh and Punjab.  “The riverine forests in Sindh and Punjab will be disturbed badly if the river flow is affected, ultimately leading to complete collapse of the region’s ecosystem.” Majeed said: “The mangrove forests in Sindh depend upon river water as well. The decreased fresh water supply to mangroves can end this unique green treasure and a sanctuary for different aerial and marine species.

Any reduction in river flow will lead to decreased water seepage and recharge. The water table that has already gone down will decrease further, not only disturbing the forestry but also the ecology of the region.”   He said that according to the Landcover Atlas of Pakistan, irrigated plantations in Punjab, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa cover a total area of 175,216 hectares, out of which irrigated plantations comprise 89,301, 71,186, and 14,729 hectares, respectively.

Bela or riverine forests in Punjab and Sindh comprise 215,934 hectares, with each province covering an area of 32,099 and 183,835 hectares, respectively. Mangroves in Sindh cover 353,062 hectares. Majeed said, “Water bodies in Punjab, Sindh and KP consist of 1,059,672 hectares. Individually, in Punjab, water bodies cover 377,414, Sindh 457,661, and KP 224,597 hectares, respectively.” He said that India should be pressured globally to come out of the unilateral suspension of the IWT.

Talking to WealthPK, Muhammad Saleem, deputy director of media, the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination, said: “India’s recent decision to suspend IWT has sparked concern about the potential for adverse ecological consequences in Pakistan.” The landmark treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, governs water sharing between India and Pakistan across the Indus River system, covering six rivers vital to agriculture, biodiversity, and daily life in both countries.

Saleem said that environmental scientists and policymakers in Pakistan fear the treaty’s suspension will disrupt the delicate ecological balance, particularly in the country’s Punjab and Sindh provinces, which are heavily dependent on the Indus Basin for irrigation, fishing, and water transport. “Reduced water flow could intensify salinity levels in the river, leading to degraded water quality, shrinking crop yields, and worsening food insecurity.”

He said, “Beyond agriculture, the Indus River system supports one of the world’s most diverse ecosystems. The Indus delta, home to the largest mangrove forest on earth, plays a crucial role in protecting Pakistan’s coastlines and sustaining aquatic life. It also shelters endangered species such as the Indus River dolphin and serves as a critical stopover for millions of migratory birds.”

Saleem said the suspension of the treaty isn’t just a political or diplomatic move — it risks turning fertile agricultural zones into arid wastelands. “The treaty’s halt also endangers local economies that depend on fishing, aquaculture, and afforestation initiatives designed to counteract the region’s growing vulnerability to climate change.”

He said Pakistan should challenge the Indian suspension of IWT through various international legal channels, including the World Bank, the International Court of Justice, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, and the United Nations Security Council. Meanwhile, talking to WealthPK, Ejaz Nizamani, former conservator and ex-secretary of Sindh Forests and Wildlife Department, said, “India’s withdrawal from the IWT would hurt Pakistan economically and ecologically.

“The main reason is that India cannot stop Indus River water in bulk, particularly in summer monsoon times. But, stopping just 20% of flows for a month in lean times like early Kharif (summer) when cotton plantation takes place or stopping water in late winter when wheat requires last irrigation would be more damaging. This can have widespread impact, and shed a percentage or more of Pakistan’s GDP.”

Credit: INP-WealthPk