Qudsia Bano 

Following the release of Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25, economic analysts and industry experts have cautioned that the country's recent economic improvements could be short-lived unless there is sustained policy continuity and structural reforms, reports WealthPK.

The Economic Survey reported a GDP growth of 2.7 percent and inflation easing to 4.6 percent in the outgoing fiscal year, alongside a modest increase in per capita income. Despite these encouraging indicators, experts expressed concern over the fragility of gains and the risks posed by the inconsistent policy decisions.

Speaking to WealthPK, Waqas Mirza, Senior Economic Analyst at the Pakistan Institute for Development Economics (PIDE), said while macroeconomic stability was showing signs of improvement, the gains could quickly reverse if policymakers failed to remain consistent. “Short-term recovery is visible in the numbers, but Pakistan’s economy still lacks the foundational strength needed for sustained growth.

We have seen in the past how abrupt policy shifts and lack of coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities can derail momentum,” Mirza said. Mirza emphasized the importance of maintaining investor confidence and ensuring that the reforms are not just initiated but followed through effectively. “We need long-term planning and strong institutional capacity to back it,” he added.

Similarly, Fatima Qureshi, a policy researcher at the Centre for Economic Research and Policy (CERP), noted that the survey reflected progress, but warned that underlying vulnerabilities remained. “There’s a real danger that without addressing issues like low tax compliance, inefficiencies in public spending, and weak regulatory enforcement, these numbers will not translate into real, long-lasting economic benefits,” she said.

Qureshi added that reliance on short-term borrowing and import-led growth models should be reduced, and more focus must be placed on domestic productivity and export competitiveness. Both experts agreed that a credible medium-term reform agenda, accompanied by clear communication and stakeholder engagement, would be crucial to avoid slipping back into economic uncertainty.

The Federal Budget 2025-26 was expected to provide a clearer direction for the government's commitment to long-term reforms. However, experts stressed that political will and institutional stability would be key to ensuring that these commitments were not only announced but also implemented effectively.

Credit: INP-WealthPk