By Azeem Ahmed Khan

Pakistan has launched a new land and water-use planning project to support federal and provincial governments in protecting agricultural land from unplanned urban expansion, as national food demand is projected to rise by at least 50% by 2050.

The 2026-28 project, “Strengthening National Food Security through Integrated Land and Water Use Planning,” will be implemented jointly by the Ministry of National Food Security and Research, the Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives and the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations. FAO is funding the initiative at no cost to the government.

Talking to Wealth Pakistan, Project Manager, FAO Pakistan, Wakas Karim Awan said the initiative would help authorities identify where fertile agricultural land is being converted, understand the scale of the change and use that evidence to make better land-use decisions.

He said one of the main outcomes of the project would be a Digital National Land-Use Change Atlas, which would show how much farmland was converted to other uses between 2005 and 2025 and where these changes took place. It would also provide projections of how land use could change up to 2047 by continuing with business-as-usual.

The project will also prepare a model zoning framework to help identify which areas should be protected for agriculture and how land and water should be managed in an integrated manner. This framework will first be tested in three districts before it can be considered for wider use.

In response to a question, Awan said the pilot districts would be selected jointly with provincial governments through the Technical Working Group. Provincial governments will also help shape the zoning criteria and coordination arrangements.

The project aims to prevent the growing loss of productive farmland as cities expand and land is increasingly used for housing and other development projects. Uncoordinated urban growth, rising land prices, conversion of farmland on city outskirts, pressure on groundwater, and construction on natural drainage channels and floodplains are all putting food-producing areas under increasing strain.

Evidence from major cities shows how quickly urban expansion is encroaching on agricultural land. In Lahore, the built-up area more than doubled from 470 square kilometres in 2003 to 956 square kilometres in 2023, with about 325 square kilometres of the increase coming directly at the expense of farmland.

In Multan, the share of built-up land rose from 9% in 1993 to 32% in 2023, while the share of agricultural land declined from 76% to 66%. Rawalpindi recorded a 22.2% increase in built-up area between 1990 and 2020 and a rise of 3°C in land surface temperature.

Mr Awan said the project would treat land and water planning as connected issues. He said that the rate of decline in total water storage in the Indus Basin increased from -0.65 centimetres a year during 2002-15 to -2.16 centimetres a year during 2015-22, while more than 60% of Pakistan’s water is pumped from underground reservoirs.

The project will start by setting up a Technical Working Group and gathering the required data. During the first year, the focus will be on preparing the National Land-Use Change Atlas, reviewing how farmland changed between 2005 and 2025, and estimating how land use may change up to 2047. The zoning framework will then be tested in three districts, while consultations with provinces, training and wider policy discussions will continue into the second year.

The FAO Pakistan project manager said the project is designed to leave behind a practical framework for government institutions to continue using after the project period. The framework, once tested in three districts, could be integrated into decision-making and scaled up for land-use zoning at provincial and national levels, he added.

Credit: INP-WealthPk