By Azeem Ahmed Khan

Pakistan's annual mean temperature has risen by approximately 0.5°C over the past five decades and is projected to increase by a further 3°C to 5°C by the end of the century, underscoring the growing threat of climate change to the country's economy, environment and population, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26.

The survey highlights a sharp rise in temperatures across northern Pakistan during 2025. Temperature anomalies reached +1.24°C in Gilgit-Baltistan, +1.29°C in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and +1.56°C in Azad Jammu and Kashmir, marking the highest levels recorded in the past 65 years.

According to the survey, rising temperatures are accelerating glacial melt in the country's northern mountain ranges and increasing the risk of glacier lake outburst floods. Higher atmospheric moisture levels are also contributing to greater rainfall variability and more frequent extreme weather events.

The report notes that climate change is altering Pakistan's monsoon system. While the number of rainy days has declined, rainfall intensity has increased, resulting in more episodes of heavy precipitation and flash flooding. Monsoon activity is also becoming increasingly concentrated in southern parts of the country, changing traditional flood-risk patterns.

The survey identifies flooding as one of the most visible consequences of climate change. It describes the 2022 floods as among the most devastating climate-related disasters in Pakistan's history. Similarly, the floods of 2025 emerged as one of the most widespread climate disasters in recent years, affecting Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

Beyond floods, the report points to a range of climate-related challenges affecting the country. Rising sea levels and saline intrusion in the Indus Delta are damaging coastal ecosystems, including mangrove forests and fisheries, while increased cyclonic activity is exposing coastal communities to greater risks.

The survey also highlights worsening air quality, growing water scarcity and increasing pressure on vulnerable communities as major challenges linked to climate change. It notes that Pakistan remains among the countries most vulnerable to climate impacts despite contributing less than one percent to global greenhouse gas emissions and accounting for only 0.4 percent of historic emissions.

Pakistan's vulnerability is compounded by its diverse geography. The country is home to the Hindu Kush, Himalaya and Karakoram mountain ranges, which contain the world's largest concentration of glaciers outside the polar regions, while its long Arabian Sea coastline remains highly exposed to climatic changes.

The survey further shows a steady increase in the frequency of natural disasters over the past four decades. During the 1980s, annual disaster occurrences generally ranged between zero and four events. However, disaster frequency began increasing in the early 1990s and accelerated after 2000, when annual events repeatedly ranged between six and 11 incidents.

The trend intensified after 2015, with floods, storms, heatwaves, droughts and landslides becoming more frequent. According to the survey, 2023 was the most disaster-prone year in the last 43 years, recording 13 natural disaster events.

The report warns that natural disasters are no longer isolated or cyclical occurrences but are becoming increasingly frequent, highlighting the urgent need for stronger climate resilience measures, disaster preparedness and integrated risk management strategies across the country.

Credit: INP-WealthPk