By Abdul Wajid Khan

The Permanent Court of Arbitration’s (PCA) ruling reaffirming the continued validity of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has strengthened Pakistan’s water rights under the treaty, shifting attention to how Islamabad translates that legal advantage into compliance through sustained diplomatic engagement and dispute-resolution mechanisms.

The IWT, signed by India and Pakistan in 1960, governs the sharing of the Indus River system and provides mechanisms for resolving disputes concerning water use and hydroelectric projects. Under the treaty, India can develop run-of-river hydropower projects on the western rivers, including the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, subject to specified design and operational restrictions.

The dispute entered a new phase in April 2025 when India announced that it was placing the treaty “in abeyance” following an attack in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan challenged the move, maintaining that India could not unilaterally suspend the agreement.
On August 31, 2026, the PCA unanimously ruled that the treaty remained fully in force and that India had no valid basis under the treaty or international law to suspend or terminate it. The decision reaffirmed India’s continuing obligations concerning the western rivers, including restrictions governing its hydroelectric projects.

With the treaty’s continued validity reaffirmed, attention has now shifted to compliance and the ongoing disputes over upstream hydropower projects.

The PCA also imposed interim measures concerning the Ratle Hydroelectric Plant on the Chenab River, prohibiting certain concreting works on the dam wall and power intake structure until 90 days after the Neutral Expert issues a final decision on the project’s compliance with the treaty. That decision is currently expected around July 2027.

The measures provide a temporary safeguard while the technical dispute over Ratle remains unresolved. They also mean that the treaty’s dispute-resolution mechanisms will remain important as questions surrounding Indian hydropower projects continue to be considered through separate proceedings involving the Neutral Expert.

Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies Islamabad Tughral Yamin described the PCA decision as “only a moral victory”, arguing that its practical impact would depend on enforcement after India rejected the ruling as being beyond the PCA’s remit.
“Pakistan must seriously consider the options available to it. On the diplomatic front, the issue must be raised at all forums and world opinion should be shaped to convince the international community about the sheer criminality of stopping or planning to stop the river waters of the lower riparian,” Yamin told Wealth Pakistan.

Yamin said Pakistan should therefore pursue a broader diplomatic strategy rather than treating the PCA decision as the end of the dispute.
At the same time, Yamin cautioned against steps that could lead to further escalation.

“There can be a number of kinetic means short of actually going to war but these may have repercussions,” he said, raising the question of whether deliberate interference with water supplies could potentially be regarded as an act of war.

He stressed that Pakistan would have to proceed “very intelligently” to avoid a situation in which its allies withdrew their support.
“PCA decision notwithstanding, Pakistan should leave no stone unturned for the revival of IWT and the stopping the construction of dams on the Indus, Chenab and the Jhelum,” Yamin said.

The ruling has preserved the legal framework through which Pakistan can pursue its water rights and challenge actions concerning the western rivers. The next challenge is ensuring that those legal protections translate into compliance.
The enforcement question, however, extends beyond the PCA proceedings. Pakistan will need to continue using the treaty’s dispute-settlement mechanisms while maintaining diplomatic engagement over compliance and closely following technical proceedings concerning projects such as Ratle.

Yamin said the PCA ruling should therefore be followed by sustained diplomatic and legal engagement aimed at preserving the IWT, ensuring respect for Pakistan’s rights under the treaty and pursuing concerns over upstream projects through established dispute-resolution mechanisms.

Credit: INP-WealthPk