By Moaaz Manzoor

The government has introduced a new project prioritisation framework, known as the “Rockfill Strategy,” to manage mounting development commitments and ensure that limited Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) resources are directed towards projects with the greatest strategic importance. According to a presentation prepared for the Annual Plan Coordination Committee (APCC), the strategy classifies development schemes into three categories — Rocks, Pebbles and Sand — based on project size and approval level.

The objective is to help policymakers prioritise funding amid growing fiscal constraints and a rapidly expanding development portfolio. Under the classification system, “Rocks” are projects costing more than Rs7.5 billion and approved by the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC). “Pebbles” include projects costing between Rs1 billion and Rs7.5 billion that have been approved by the Central Development Working Party (CDWP), while “Sand” comprises projects costing less than Rs1 billion approved by Departmental Development Working Parties (DDWPs).

The presentation shows that out of 786 ongoing federal development projects, 197 have been classified as Rocks, 335 as Pebbles and 254 as Sand. Despite accounting for only one-fourth of the total number of projects, Rocks dominate the federal development portfolio. These projects carry a total cost of Rs14.687 trillion and a throw-forward of Rs10.065 trillion. According to the document, Rocks received Rs813 billion, or 81% of the total PSDP allocation for FY2025-26. The category requires an additional Rs439 billion during the current fiscal year and will need approximately Rs2.95 trillion in FY2026-27.

Pebbles account for 335 projects with a combined cost of Rs1.045 trillion and a throw-forward of Rs669 billion. They received Rs148 billion, or 15% of PSDP allocations, during FY2025-26 and are projected to require Rs349 billion next year. Meanwhile, the Sand category comprises 254 projects with a total cost of Rs133 billion and a throw-forward of Rs84 billion. These projects received Rs39 billion, representing 4% of PSDP allocations, and are expected to require Rs78 billion in FY2026-27.

The presentation further divides the Rocks category into “Big Rocks” and “Medium Rocks.” Big Rocks consist of five projects with costs exceeding Rs500 billion. Together, these projects account for a cost of Rs5.926 trillion and a throw-forward of Rs4.575 trillion. Medium Rocks include 19 projects costing between Rs100 billion and Rs500 billion. Their combined cost stands at Rs3.801 trillion with a throw-forward of Rs2.638 trillion. According to the document, the concentration of development liabilities within a relatively small number of large projects has become a defining feature of Pakistan’s federal development portfolio.

The Planning Ministry’s data show that the total federal development portfolio now carries a throw-forward of Rs10.818 trillion, while ongoing projects require Rs3.377 trillion in FY2026-27 against an Indicative Budget Ceiling of Rs1.126 trillion. The Rockfill Strategy is being presented as a tool to help direct scarce development resources towards higher-priority projects as policymakers seek to manage growing financing pressures within the PSDP framework.

Credit: INP-WealthPk