By Farooq Awan

Pakistan is expected to undergo significant demographic changes over the coming decades, with shifting fertility patterns, migration trends, urbanisation and rising life expectancy likely to reshape the country’s social and economic landscape, according to the latest National and Provincial Level Population Projections (2023-2050) report. The report stated that Pakistan’s population is projected to continue growing steadily until 2050 despite gradual declines in fertility rates.

Based on findings from the 2023 Digital Census and demographic modelling, the study stressed the importance of evidence-based planning to address future challenges related to healthcare, education, employment, housing and infrastructure development. According to the report, demographic changes are unlikely to occur evenly across the provinces. Some regions are expected to experience rapid urban expansion, while others may continue facing relatively high fertility rates and limited access to social services.

The projections indicate that internal migration will remain a key factor shaping demographic patterns, particularly in urban centres and economically active regions. The report stressed that investments in women’s education, family planning, healthcare access and employment generation would play a central role in shaping Pakistan’s long-term demographic future. Analysts noted that improvements in reproductive health services and educational attainment could help moderate population growth while supporting sustainable economic development.

Researchers also identified Pakistan’s expanding working-age population as a major opportunity for economic growth. However, they warned that without stronger labour market reforms and industrial expansion, the demographic transition could place additional strain on public institutions and urban infrastructure. The projections suggest that Pakistan’s demographic transition is gradually moving the country toward a more mature population structure.

Although the proportion of young people is expected to decline over time, the absolute number of youth and working-age populations will continue increasing for several decades. The report further highlighted the importance of district-level demographic planning. Policymakers were advised to use local population projections to guide investments in public services, disaster preparedness, social protection and urban development strategies.

Officials associated with the projection exercise said demographic intelligence has become increasingly important in the context of climate risks, technological transformation and changing labour market conditions. They emphasized that future development planning would require stronger coordination between federal and provincial authorities. The report was prepared by the National Institute of Population Studies, Training and Research with support from the Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives and UNFPA.

It used fertility data from demographic surveys along with mortality and migration estimates to build long-term population projection scenarios. Experts believe the findings could help policymakers anticipate future demographic pressures and formulate more resilient economic and social policies. The study also underlined that demographic projections remain uncertain and could change depending on future economic conditions, policy reforms, migration patterns and public health developments.

Credit: INP-WealthPk