By Moaaz Manzoor

Wheat and wheat flour prices posted sharp annual increases in rural areas in February 2026, rising by more than 40% compared to a year earlier, according to the Monthly Review on Price Indices (Base Year 2015-16) released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

Data from the Rural Consumer Price Index (RCPI) show that the wheat index climbed to 349.51 in February 2026 from 235.97 in February 2025, reflecting a 48.12% year-on-year increase. On a month-on-month basis, however, wheat prices declined slightly by 1.03% compared to January 2026, when the index stood at 353.15.

Wheat flour also recorded a substantial annual increase. The index rose to 326.73 in February 2026 from 233.07 in February 2025, marking a 40.19% year-on-year rise. On a monthly basis, wheat flour prices increased by 2.74% compared to January 2026, when the index was 318.01.

In absolute terms, the wheat index increased by 113.54 points over the year, while wheat flour rose by 93.66 points compared to February 2025, underscoring the scale of annual price adjustments in staple grains.

Wheat carries a weight of 3.47% in the rural CPI basket, while wheat flour accounts for 3.43%. Together, the two staples represent a meaningful share of rural household food expenditure. The broader food and non-alcoholic beverages group, which has a weight of 40.87% in the rural basket, recorded a 7.19% year-on-year increase in February 2026.

Within the food category, non-perishable food items rose by 8.76% year-on-year, while perishable food items declined by 5.04% compared to February 2025. The overall rural CPI registered a 7.27% year-on-year increase in February 2026 and a 0.28% rise on a month-on-month basis.

Other cereal-related items also showed upward movement. Wheat products recorded an 8.89% annual increase, with the index rising to 312.31 in February 2026 from 286.80 a year earlier. Rice prices increased by 4.37% year-on-year, while bakery and confectionary items were up 6.51% compared to February 2025.

The RCPI data indicate that despite some month-on-month easing in wheat prices, the annual comparison reflects continued pressure on staple grain costs in rural areas. Wheat and wheat flour remained among the strongest contributors to food inflation in February 2026, highlighting persistent upward adjustments in essential household commodities.

Credit: INP-WealthPk