Moaaz Manzoor

The benchmark KSE-100 Index remained under pressure for most sessions during the outgoing week before staging a strong rebound on Friday, trimming earlier losses. The index closed the week at 161,632 points, reflecting a decline of 3,862 points or 2.3 percent on a week-on-week basis. Market participation remained moderate, with average trading volumes falling 35.5 percent week-on-week to 956 million shares, while the average traded value declined 22.3 percent to USD 137 million.

The late-week rally helped offset losses earlier in the week that had been driven by weak corporate results and cautious investor sentiment. According to Arif Habib Limited, commercial banks were the biggest contributors, adding 841 points to the index, followed by fertilizer companies with 132 points, power generation and distribution with 26 points, paper and board with 23 points, and the property sector with 11 points.

Conversely, exploration and production (E&P) companies pulled the index down by 763 points, followed by investment banks with 666 points, oil marketing companies (OMCs) with 211 points, glass and ceramics with 185 points, and the cement sector with 163 points. Among individual scrips, the leading gainers were Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFC), adding 335 points; National Bank of Pakistan (NBP), 291 points; Bank AL Habib Limited (BAHL), 257 points; United Bank Limited (UBL), 244 points; and Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL), 179 points.

The major laggards included Engro Corporation Limited (ENGROH), which lost 638 points; Mari Petroleum Company Limited (MARI), 313 points; Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), 169 points; Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDC), 166 points; and Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT), 145 points. On the macroeconomic front, the government raised PKR 1,134.5 billion in the latest T-bill auction, surpassing its target of PKR 950 billion, with strong participation amounting to PKR 2,132.4 billion.

Yields fell on the 1-month and 3-month papers by 11 basis points and 0.1 basis points, respectively, while showing a slight increase on the 6-month and 12-month tenors. Broad money (M2) rose 0.5 percent week-on-week to PKR 39.8 trillion as of October 17, 2025. The central bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 11 percent, in line with expectations, while the rupee appreciated 0.04 percent against the US dollar to close at PKR 280.9. Banking deposits grew 12.3 percent year-on-year to PKR 35.2 trillion, while advances increased 9.4 percent to PKR 13.5 trillion in September 2025.

Oil production improved by 9.9 percent week-on-week to 66,834 barrels per day, whereas gas output declined 2.7 percent to 2,785 million cubic feet per day. Ali Najib, Deputy Head of Trading at Arif Habib Ltd, said the index staged a powerful comeback in the final session of the week, with the KSE-100 surging 4,899 points (3.13 percent) — its fourth-largest single-day gain — as optimism over a ceasefire agreement between Pakistan and Afghanistan, brokered in Istanbul with Turkish and Qatari mediation, lifted investor sentiment. Broad-based buying dominated the session, with strong gains in the banking, fertilizer, technology, and cement sectors.

AKD Securities expects the market’s upward momentum to continue amid a successful IMF staff-level review, improving credit ratings, and easing yields.  The brokerage anticipates enhanced foreign inflows supported by improving relations with the United States and Saudi Arabia, attractive equity valuations, and limited alternative investment options. Analysts forecast that the index will consolidate within the 160,000–170,000 range, with strong support at 160,000 points and potential to test the 165,000 level in the coming sessions.

Credit: INP-WealthPk