By Azeem Ahmed Khan

Pakistan is expected to maintain a comfortable and satisfactory wheat supply position during 2026-27, with local availability estimated at 31.78 million metric tonnes against a total requirement of 31.66 million metric tonnes, according to documents from the Ministry of National Food Security and Research available with Wealth Pakistan.

The ministry compiled the details in compliance with the direction of the National Assembly Standing Committee on issues affecting the agriculture sector, including wheat imports, fixation of a fair and remunerative minimum support price for wheat, DAP fertiliser subsidies and the reasons for the reported wheat shortage despite earlier indications of surplus stocks.

Based on the revised Household Integrated Economic Survey 2024-25, which estimates per capita wheat consumption at 108.33 kg per annum, Pakistan’s total wheat requirement for 2026-27 has been worked out at 31.66 million metric tonnes. This includes 29.16 million metric tonnes for human consumption, 1.5 million metric tonnes for seed and feed requirements, and 1.00 million metric tonnes for strategic reserves, the documents said.

Against this requirement, local wheat availability is estimated at 31.78 million metric tonnes, comprising 29.78 million metric tonnes of domestic production reported by the Provincial Crop Reporting Services and 2.00 million metric tonnes of carry-forward stocks, including 1.00 million metric tonnes maintained as a strategic reserve.

The documents said the available wheat supply is sufficient to meet the country’s projected requirements for human consumption, seed and feed, while maintaining the strategic reserves for food security and market stabilisation. However, the decision to import wheat was triggered by a spike in domestic wheat prices just after the harvesting season to stabilise local prices.

On wheat pricing, the ministry said Pakistan withdrew official wheat procurement at a centrally fixed minimum support price in 2024 as part of broader agricultural reforms commitments with international development partners.

Under the Interim National Wheat Policy 2025-26, the government announced an illustrative wheat price aligned with international import parity, based on the cost-and-freight Karachi price of Hard Red Winter wheat. For Rabi 2025-26, the illustrative price was approximately Rs3,500 per maund, which resulted in improved wheat prices in 2026 compared with the 2024 and 2025 harvest seasons.

As a policy decision, the federal and provincial governments are withdrawing from wheat procurement and fixation of minimum support price. Instead, the private sector is being encouraged to invest in the wheat sector value chain.

The documents also highlight DAP fertiliser support as a key policy area. DAP is Pakistan’s principal phosphate fertiliser and a critical input for wheat establishment. Pakistan imports approximately 0.8 million metric tonnes of DAP per annum, while another 0.8 million metric tonnes are produced locally from imported rock phosphate.

At the federal level, Pakistan has historically subsidised the fertiliser sector through a feed-gas price differential, reported at roughly Rs84 billion in 2024-25. However, the documents noted that this mechanism was designed mainly around gas-based urea production and did not directly address DAP’s import dependence.

At the provincial level, the Punjab government introduced interest-free loans to farmers for the purchase of agricultural inputs, including fertilisers. The government of Sindh also provided a Rs55 billion fertiliser subsidy for wheat farmers in Rabi 2025-26.

For the upcoming Rabi season 2026-27, the federal government is coordinating with provinces to subsidise 800,000 metric tonnes of DAP at Rs3,500 per bag, the documents said.

The latest update shows that Pakistan’s wheat policy approach is moving towards maintaining sufficient supplies, protecting strategic reserves, stabilising market prices, encouraging private-sector participation in the wheat value chain and supporting farmers through targeted DAP fertiliser facilitation.

Credit: INP-WealthPk