By Azeem Ahmed Khan

Pakistan is well-positioned to meet fertiliser demand for Kharif 2026, with ample urea supplies and coordinated measures ensuring steady availability and price stability despite the ongoing Middle East crisis.

According to an official document of the Ministry of National Food Security and Research, urea and DAP (Diammonium Phosphate), which together account for more than 80% of total fertiliser use, remain central to this outlook.

The Kharif (summer) season includes major crops in Pakistan such as cotton, rice, sugarcane, and maize, making timely fertiliser availability critical for agricultural output.

To ensure an uninterrupted supply, authorities are focusing on keeping all 10 urea plants operational to prevent any urea shortage and price hike. The Ministry of Maritime Affairs has been requested to facilitate the safe passage of vessels carrying DAP to Pakistan through the Strait of Hormuz. Besides, the fertiliser review committee meets weekly to monitor supply-demand dynamics.

Urea, accounting for 64% of total fertiliser use, remains the most widely used input. Pakistan has 10 urea manufacturing plants with a total production capacity of 6.7 million tonnes annually against an average offtake of 6.5 million tonnes. Currently, eight plants are operational, while two — FatimaFert and FFC (Port Qasim) — have been shut down due to gas shortages, with FatimaFert expected to resume operations in May.

For Kharif 2026, total urea availability is estimated at 3.845 million tonnes, including 800,000 tonnes of opening stock and 3.044 million tonnes of domestic production. Demand is projected at 3.364 million tonnes, leaving a closing stock of 480,000 tonnes.

Farmers spent Rs531 billion on the purchase of urea during 2024-25. An increase in the price of urea by Rs100 per bag puts an additional financial burden of Rs13 billion annually. DAP, the second major fertiliser with a 16% share, also shows a stable outlook.

Farmers spent Rs372 billion on DAP in 2024-25, and a Rs100 per bag increase would translate into an additional Rs3.2 billion burden annually. With only one domestic plant producing around 0.8 million tonnes against a demand of 1.6 million tonnes, the gap is met through imports.

For Kharif 2026, total DAP availability is estimated at 650,000 tonnes, including 209,000 tonnes of opening stock and 441,000 tonnes of domestic production, against a projected demand of 686,000 tonnes.

Fertiliser prices indicate relative stability, with the average retail price of urea at Rs4,433 per 50kg bag and DAP at Rs14,540 per 50kg bag.

Credit: INP-WealthPk