Azeem Ahmed Khan

Pakistan is set to begin sowing its key Rabi (winter) crops for the 2025-26 season amid a mix of favourable soil moisture and looming concerns over declining rainfall in the coming months, according to an official document available with Wealth Pakistan. The document on water availability highlighted that above-average monsoon rainfall has left “reasonable soil moisture” across most parts of the country, setting a positive base for the Rabi plantation, including wheat, barley and pulses.

However, soil moisture stress is also expected during October-December due to below-normal precipitation, especially in the upper rainfed and hilly areas of the country. The outlook for October to December 2025 forecasts normal to below-normal precipitation across most of the country. Normal to slightly below-normal rains are forecast for much of Punjab through the sowing season; however, precipitation may be near or slightly above normal in October. Normal to slightly above normal rainfall is expected in Sindh during the period.

Balochistan is also expected to see normal to slightly below-normal rainfall, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir are forecast to receive mostly below-normal precipitation during the three months. Discussing the possible impacts, the document shows that despite the anticipated dry spell in the northern and hilly areas, a considerable amount of irrigation water would be available during the coming season. It cautioned, however, that judicious use of available water stocks is essential in the southern parts of the country over the three months.

The document also forecasts that temperatures will remain above normal during the October-December period, especially in upper KP, GB and AJK, while the central and southern plains of Punjab, Sindh and adjoining Balochistan may experience near-normal conditions. Mean temperatures during September also remained slightly above normal by about 1 degree Centigrade, a trend that was uniform across all the provinces. Between July and September 2025, Pakistan received 24.5% more rainfall than average, with Punjab leading the provinces at 36% above normal, followed by Sindh, Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), AJK, and GB.

For the first 23 days of September alone, rainfall across the country was 70% above normal, with Sindh recording the highest excess, followed by Punjab and Balochistan, while below-normal rains were recorded in KP, AJK and GB.  The document noted that irrigation water releases to the provinces have shown a steady improvement over recent Rabi seasons, standing at 27.423 million-acre feet (MAF) in 2022-23, 29.374 MAF in 2023-24 and 30.592 MAF in 2024-25. It also noted significant variations in water releases during the last three Kharif (summer crop) seasons, which recorded 65.082 MAF in 2022, a sharp fall to 43.268 MAF in 2023, and a recovery to 61.851 MAF in 2024.

Credit: INP-WealthPk