Moaaz Manzoor

The Pakistani rupee remained largely stable throughout September, with interbank rates showing only mild fluctuations against major currencies. Improved foreign inflows, tighter regulatory oversight, and subdued speculative activity helped keep the local unit on firm ground.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan, the rupee showed a gradual strengthening trend against the US dollar. It opened the month at 281.4443 (buying) and 281.8762 (selling), eased slightly in the second week, and strengthened steadily to close September at 281.0804 and 281.5122.

In the euro market, the rupee initially gained, rising from 328.4706 and 328.9715 in the first week to 331.0237 and 331.5238 in the third. However, it later slipped back, ending the month at 329.7905 and 330.2893.

Sterling also saw ups and downs. From an opening of 378.7129 and 379.2858, it advanced in the second week, softened in the third, dipped further in the fourth, and then recovered slightly to close September at 377.7562 and 378.3416.

The Saudi riyal traded within a narrow band, starting at 75.0083 and 75.1197 and closing at 74.9426 and 75.0526. The Chinese yuan followed a similar trajectory, opening at 39.4370 and 39.4885, peaking in the third week, and ending the month marginally lower at 39.4594 and 39.5109.

Speaking to Wealth Pakistan, Syed Zafar Abbas, Manager at Zahid Latif Khan Securities, said there was no major pressure from external payments during September. He noted that the State Bank’s relaxation of open-market purchases and measures under the Special Investment Facilitation Council helped curb dollar smuggling and dampen speculation. With remittances picking up, he expects the rupee to remain stable.

Muhammad Bilal Ejaz, Research Analyst at Ismail Iqbal Securities, observed that the rupee traded within a narrow band, reflecting limited volatility. He stressed, however, that sustaining this stability will hinge on steady foreign inflows, prudent monetary and fiscal policies, and a favorable global environment.

Analysts concluded that the rupee ended September on a firmer footing, supported by rising reserves and reduced speculative pressure, though external shocks remain a risk in the months ahead.

Credit: INP-WealthPk