By Moaaz Manzoor

Escalating US-Israeli attacks on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation are reverberating across the region, placing Pakistan in a complex geopolitical position as it navigates diplomatic pressures, security risks along its western frontier and growing regional instability.

Pakistan shares a 900-kilometre border with Iran, a frontier historically vulnerable to militant activity, smuggling networks and sectarian spillover. The country is also home to an estimated 15 to 20 per cent Shia population — one of the largest outside Iran — meaning developments affecting Iran often resonate strongly within sections of Pakistani society.

Analysts warn that instability in Iran could intensify sectarian narratives and create space for militant actors to exploit tensions. Speaking with Wealth Pakistan, Dr Nasir Hafiz, Director Research at the Strategic Vision Institute (SVI) in Islamabad, said Pakistan should adopt a principled diplomatic stance in response to the unfolding crisis.

According to him, Pakistan should condemn any use of force against Iran by the United States and Israel while recognising Iran’s right to defend its territory and people. At the same time, Islamabad should use all available diplomatic channels to urge restraint, push for an early cessation of hostilities and encourage negotiations in good faith.

Dr Hafiz stressed that targeting civilians, schools and hospitals must end and attempts to expand the conflict to additional countries should be avoided. He also called for a stronger role for the United Nations Security Council, urging permanent members including Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom to press the United States and Israel toward negotiations while supporting diplomatic initiatives aimed at de-escalation.

Offering a strategic perspective, Assistant Professor Dr Masood Khattak, an international relations expert at the International Islamic University, said the recent US strikes appear aimed at weakening Iran’s leadership and military capabilities rather than achieving immediate regime change.

He argued that regime change through decapitation strikes is unlikely because Iran’s leadership structure allows rapid replacement. A ground invasion would be required for such an objective, which he described as unrealistic given Iran’s size of 1.6 million square kilometres and its military capabilities.

Dr Khattak warned that the crisis could create difficult geopolitical choices for Pakistan. Islamabad signed a mutual defence agreement with Saudi Arabia in 2025, and any sustained attacks on Saudi territory, refineries or strategic assets could place pressure on Pakistan to support its ally.

“At the same time Pakistan cannot afford confrontation with Iran,” he said, noting that escalation could place Pakistan under simultaneous strategic pressure along three borders — Iran, Afghanistan and India.

He also highlighted the global economic implications of instability in the region. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz — through which around 20 per cent of the world’s oil and roughly 20 to 21 million barrels per day pass — could trigger global economic losses estimated at $500 to $600 billion annually.

Dr Khattak noted that maritime risks have already pushed tanker and cargo shipping costs up by around 40 per cent, with vessels now charging roughly $400,000 per day due to heightened security threats in the corridor. According to the Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (PRIME), the eruption of conflict in the Persian Gulf has already created uncertainty in global shipping routes and energy supply chains.

Iranian officials on March 2 claimed that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed and warned they would attack vessels attempting to pass through it, although US Central Command rejected the claim and maintained that the corridor remained open. Nevertheless, maritime traffic has slowed significantly as shipping companies reassess war-risk insurance requirements and operational costs in the volatile security environment.

Syed Basim Raza, Assistant Manager of Research at the National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), told Wealth Pakistan that Pakistan’s geopolitical positioning after the American-Israeli strikes on Iran will depend on several key factors. “First and foremost is Pakistan’s stronger public alignment with Iran. We have officially condemned the American strikes, describing them as violations of international law and affirming Iran’s right to self-defense under the UN Charter,” he said.

However, he noted that the conflict could increase American pressure on Pakistan regarding sanctions enforcement, intelligence cooperation, airspace sensitivities and actions against Iran-linked networks. Raza added that Gulf diplomacy will remain crucial because Pakistan relies heavily on the Gulf states for remittances, investment and oil supplies.

He warned that the conflict could also spill over into Pakistan’s internal security environment, while Islamabad may seek to play a limited mediating role given its working relations with Iran, the United States and the Gulf countries.

For Pakistan, therefore, the confrontation surrounding Iran represents more than a distant geopolitical crisis. It presents a strategic challenge that could influence internal stability, border security dynamics, diplomatic alignments and the country’s ability to balance competing regional interests.

Credit: INP-WealthPk