Muhammad Luqman

The decades' worst flooding in three major rivers of Pakistan – Chenab, Sutlej, and Ravi, which wreaked havoc in Punjab, has fueled speculations about its causes.

Hydrologists, however, dismiss the notion of "water weaponization," arguing that India lacks the capacity to control water flows in Pakistan’s rivers, particularly the western ones such as the Chenab, Indus, and Jhelum. “India has no capacity to generate floods in Pakistan or to stop the flow of water from the western rivers. The Indus Waters Treaty (HIWT) has always barred India from constructing any reservoirs on the Jhelum, Chenab, or Indus,” said former Indus Water Commissioner Sheraz Jamil Memon, while talking to Wealth Pakistan.

He explained that the flooding in the Chenab River resulted from extraordinary rainfall in Himachal Pradesh and Indian-occupied Kashmir over the last several weeks. “All the controversial dams India has built in the occupied Kashmir, including Baglihar and Salal, are run-of-the-river projects, which cannot hold back large volumes of water,” Memon said.

Regarding the eastern rivers, Memon noted the reservoirs in both Pakistan and India are typically filled between the second and last week of August, and the additional water generated afterward is automatically released through the spillways, he explained. He said it would be stupid for any dam regulator to release water from a reservoir before the filling of the dam up to the capacity.

Pakistan’s Tarbela Dam on the Indus River, for instance, fills to capacity after mid-August, forcing operators to release excess water. The same process occurs with every dam in both India and Pakistan, he said. According to Memon, it would take at least 10 to 15 years and trillions of dollars for India to build large dams or diversion infrastructure needed to significantly affect water flows in Pakistan’s western rivers.

About Ravi, he said at present, India itself cannot fully utilize its own waters and is compelled to release at least one million acre-feet annually to Pakistan, despite its reluctance. Syed Jamaat Ali Shah, another former Indus Water Commissioner, agreed with these assessments. He suggested that while India may have delayed sharing information about flood inflows into the Sutlej and Chenab, it cannot deliberately release massive amounts of water into Pakistan without devastating its own Punjab and Himachal regions.

“It is time we also evaluate our own flood management strategies,” Shah emphasized. “After the catastrophic floods of 2010 and 2022, what measures have we Pakistanis taken to mitigate such losses?” He stressed the need to strengthen the capacity of disaster management authorities at both federal and provincial levels, as well as to upgrade flood forecasting systems to deal more effectively with future crises.

Climatologists, meanwhile, recommend addressing the environmental factors driving extreme weather. They urge Pakistan and regional countries to curb deforestation and reduce fossil fuel consumption to slow glacier melt and minimize climate-related disasters. “Instead of indulging in a blame game, South Asian countries should work together to find solutions to climate change-related challenges,” said Chaudhary Muhammad Aslam, former chief meteorologist.

Credit: INP-WealthPk