Farooq Awan

More than half of the essential commodities tracked under the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) recorded no change in prices during the week ended January 22, 2026, even as overall weekly inflation declined by 0.48%, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

The latest PBS figures show that prices of 28 items, representing 54.90% of the total basket, remained unchanged during the monitored week, indicating a broad pattern of price stability across a large portion of consumer essentials.

According to the data, only 12 items, or 23.53% of the basket, recorded price increases during the week, while 11 items, accounting for 21.57%, showed price declines. Despite the limited number of items registering decreases, the overall SPI moved downward due to sharp reductions in selected high-impact commodities, particularly food items such as chicken, potatoes and onions.

The PBS report highlights that unchanged prices were recorded across both food and non-food categories. Among food items that remained stable on a week-on-week basis were rice (both basmati broken and IRRI varieties), bread, beef, mutton, fresh milk, curd, powdered milk, chili powder, tea, and several cooked food items. Stability was also observed in a range of non-food items, including clothing, footwear, electricity charges, telephone call charges, washing soap, match boxes, and selected household goods.

This widespread price stability played a moderating role in the overall inflation outcome for the week. While sharp declines in a small number of food items pulled the SPI lower, the unchanged prices of a majority of items prevented larger swings in the index. According to the PBS, this pattern reflects limited short-term volatility for many everyday consumer goods during the monitored period.

The distribution of price movements underscores the importance of item weights in determining the overall SPI. Although more than half of the items remained unchanged, significant price movements in a few high-weight items were sufficient to influence the headline index. Chicken prices fell by 16.68% during the week, while potatoes and onions declined by 8.52% and 7.27%, respectively. These decreases outweighed price increases recorded in items such as tomatoes, wheat flour and eggs.

The stability in prices was also reflected across expenditure-based consumption quintiles. All five quintiles recorded a week-on-week decline in the SPI, ranging from 0.30% for the lowest expenditure group (Q1) to 0.54% for the highest expenditure group (Q5). The combined index declined by 0.48%, indicating that the overall impact of unchanged prices and selective declines was felt across all income groups.

PBS data further indicate that price stability was observed alongside a year-on-year increase of 4.18% in the combined SPI. This contrast highlights the difference between short-term price movements and longer-term inflation trends. While many items showed no change during the week, their prices remained higher than a year earlier in several cases, contributing to the positive year-on-year inflation reading.

The latest SPI snapshot suggests that short-term inflation dynamics are increasingly shaped by movements in a limited set of volatile items, while a large share of essential commodities exhibit price rigidity on a weekly basis. According to the PBS, monitoring the balance between stable and volatile items is critical for understanding short-term inflation trends and their impact on household budgets.

The data for the week ended January 22, 2026, indicate that although weekly inflation declined, the prevalence of unchanged prices across the SPI basket points to a relatively stable price environment for most essential goods, with overall movements driven primarily by a small number of commodities.

Credit: INP-WealthPk