By Azeem Ahmed Khan

Pakistan may face hotter temperatures, rising water stress, and increasingly erratic monsoon patterns later this year as weather experts monitor the possible emergence of an El Niño event between May and July.

Talking with Wealth Pakistan, Deputy Director of the Pakistan Meteorological Department Muhammad Farooq Dar said past studies generally associate El Niño conditions with suppressed monsoon rainfall. However, he cautioned that below-normal monsoon conditions do not eliminate the risk of extreme weather events, including urban flooding and heavy downpours.

He said short spells of intense rainfall of around 150–200mm within 24 hours cannot be ruled out. Overall, however, El Niño is linked with reduced rainfall and higher temperatures, which increase evaporation and raise water demand across households, agriculture, livestock, and ecosystems.

Dar said temperatures during El Niño periods are generally higher than normal globally, intensifying the heat index — a combination of temperature and humidity — during the monsoon season.

Pakistan’s monsoon season usually lasts around 90 days from early July to September and contributes nearly 60–65% of the country’s annual rainfall. Dar said its intensity depends on several factors, including moisture inflows, topography, cold air interactions, and westerly weather systems.

El Niño, driven by warmer-than-normal Pacific Ocean temperatures, typically develops every two to three years and is categorized as weak, moderate, or strong.

Dar said climate indicators currently show a transition toward El Niño conditions that may persist through the remainder of the year. He added that preliminary assessments indicate the possibility of a relatively strong event, although a clearer picture will emerge by June or July.

He clarified that the term “Super El Niño” is not officially used by the Met Office and warned that phrases such as “cloudburst” and “heatburst” often create unnecessary public alarm.

Highlighting broader climate concerns, Dar said Pakistan is also facing declining snowfall, changing rainfall patterns, reduced river flows, and mounting pressure on water resources. He noted that rainfall patterns are gradually shifting toward southern regions, while precipitation is decreasing in some key northern catchment areas.

He said the Hindu Kush region is steadily losing its traditional role as a natural water reservoir because of declining snowfall. In the past, winter snow accumulation of 10–15 feet would remain until April and melt gradually to feed rivers. Now, snowfall is lower and glaciers are melting faster, disrupting the natural water cycle.

Recalling recent climate extremes, Dar said the devastating monsoon floods of 2022 caused losses of around $30 billion. “Although monsoon is a blessing, it becomes a burden because of our ill-planned construction,” he said.

He stressed that improved water storage and efficient usage could help Pakistan better manage future climate risks. According to him, both small and large dams can help store surplus rainwater for later use, while responsible consumption can reduce wastage.

Calling for greater public awareness, Dar urged water conservation, rainwater harvesting, recycling, and the use of efficient irrigation methods such as sprinklers. He also warned against excessive groundwater extraction, particularly through uncontrolled use of solar-powered tubewells.

“We have never given preference to rainwater, but every drop will be very important in the coming days,” he said.

The PMD official warned that Pakistan’s declining groundwater levels have become a serious long-term concern, noting that in Islamabad, aquifers that once supplied water at just 40–50 feet now often requires drilling beyond 250 feet because of excessive extraction and inadequate natural recharge.

Credit: INP-WealthPk