China-driven imports of low-cost solar panels have rapidly transformed Pakistan’s energy landscape, making it one of the fastest-growing rooftop solar markets in the world.

Over the past few years, rooftop solar adoption has surged at an unprecedented pace across Pakistan, according to a Gwadar Pro's report.

Satellite and aerial observations show that before the COVID-19 pandemic, solar panels were largely absent from major cities such as Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad.

Installation activity began gradually in 2021–2022 but accelerated sharply during 2023 and 2024, with rooftops in many urban and semi-urban areas now increasingly covered in solar systems, particularly in affluent neighborhoods.

A key driver of this expansion has been the surge in Chinese solar panel exports to Pakistan. According to energy think tank Ember, imports rose from around 3.3 GW in 2022 to 19 GW in 2023, followed by approximately 17 GW in 2024.

By mid-2025, Pakistan had emerged among the world’s top three solar importers, with over 10 GW of Chinese solar components imported in just the first four months of the year.

Analysts attribute this growth primarily to rising electricity tariffs, persistent load-shedding, and the falling cost of solar technology.

Clean energy analyst Chris Meder describes Pakistan’s trajectory as a rapid shift toward a decentralized energy model.

He notes a significant gap between official statistics and real-world deployment, suggesting that much of the solar capacity is operating outside formal net-metering systems.

He estimates that Pakistan imported around 16.6–17 GW of solar panels in 2024 and about 18 GW in 2025, bringing cumulative imports to roughly 51.5 GW by late 2025.

However, officially registered rooftop solar capacity remains much lower at around 5.3–6.8 GW in 2025, implying that a large share—possibly over 24 GW—is operating off-grid or behind the meter.

This gap highlights how rapidly distributed solar is expanding through households, farms, factories, and commercial users, largely driven by economic pressure.

Rising electricity costs, frequent outages, and expensive backup fuels have pushed consumers toward self-generation, while declining solar and battery prices have made the transition more financially attractive.

This rapid expansion is not limited to urban rooftops alone. In rural areas, solar adoption is increasingly embedded in daily agricultural and household life.

Talking to Gwadar Pro, one local villager described the extent of this shift, saying: “In my village everything from tubewell to cell phone chargers are on solar even the hay cutting machine is on solar,” highlighting how deeply solar energy has penetrated rural economies beyond basic electricity needs.

Analysts believe Pakistan’s solar adoption is expanding faster than official systems can fully track, turning the country’s energy transition into a largely consumer-driven movement.

The rapid growth is also attracting increasing foreign investment interest, with Chinese and regional companies exploring local assembly, distribution, and solar manufacturing opportunities under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Investors see Pakistan as a high-growth renewable energy market, while planned local manufacturing initiatives aim to reduce import dependence, lower costs, create jobs, and strengthen the country’s position in the regional clean energy supply chain.

Credit: Independent News Pakistan (INP) — Pak-China