By Hasan Salahuddin

As China strengthens its seed sector through sustained policy reforms, technological advancement, and regulatory protection, its experience offers a practical framework for Pakistan to improve agricultural productivity and ensure more stable food supplies for its population of over 250 million.

China has methodically developed the world’s second-largest seed market, annually planting around 12 million metric tons of seed with an estimated commercial value exceeding $16.3 billion, according to figures from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

A key policy milestone came in 2022, when an amendment to the Seed Law introduced an Essentially Derived Variety framework to protect breeders' intellectual property and promote innovation through benefit-sharing arrangements.

These reforms have translated into measurable outcomes. By 2024, China recorded its first seed trade surplus, with hybrid rice, cotton, and vegetable seeds exported to more than 40 countries. At the same time, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed grain output reached a record 706.5 million tonnes.

In contrast, Pakistan’s seed sector continues to face structural constraints that limit its agricultural potential. Although agriculture contributes nearly a quarter of national GDP, the domestic seed market is estimated at around $0.88 billion in 2024, according to the Plant Breeders’ Rights Journal, reflecting a relatively underdeveloped commercial base.

Food security indicators further highlight these challenges. The Food and Agriculture Organization, in its latest Pakistan country brief, reported that the country harvested around 53 million tonnes of cereals in 2025, yet about 10 million people still faced acute food insecurity between April and July 2025. Meanwhile, wheat flour prices touched near-record levels in January 2026.

At the production level, gaps in seed availability remain a critical concern. The Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25 reported wheat seed requirement for 2025-26 at 1.143 million metric tons, while total availability stood at 569,761 metric tons — less than half of the national requirement.

This shortfall underscores the challenges in ensuring timely access to quality seed, which directly affects crop yields and overall agricultural output.

Speaking with Wealth Pakistan, Dr. Zuhair Hasnain, Assistant Professor at PMAS Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi, said China’s progress reflects consistent and targeted investment in breeding systems and regulatory reforms.

He noted that strong state backing and effective intellectual property protection have created an environment where high-quality seed varieties can thrive, in contrast to Pakistan’s market, where weak oversight and slow approval processes have allowed substandard products to persist.

He described the situation as a “lemon market,” where the presence of unapproved or low-quality seeds leads to reduced farmer confidence and significant yield losses.

Dr. Hasnain cited Pakistan’s maize sector as an example of the gains possible through improved seed quality, noting that output increased more than sixfold between fiscal years 2002 and 2022, rising from 1.6 million tons to 10.6 million tons, largely due to the adoption of hybrid seeds.

However, he added that this progress has relied heavily on imported hybrids from multinational firms such as Bayer and Corteva, highlighting gaps in domestic breeding capacity.

He further cautioned that while the establishment of the National Seed Development and Regulatory Authority under the 2024 Seed Amendment Act signals institutional intent, its effectiveness will depend on adequate investment in genomic screening facilities, certified seed multiplication systems, and modern breeding infrastructure.

Adnan Dotani, Research Officer at the R&D Directorate of the Forest Department in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, said that improvements in seed systems can also support high-value non-traditional sectors.

He pointed to Chilghoza as a commodity with strong export potential, noting that better processing, grading, and packaging infrastructure could significantly enhance its market value.

Dotani also stressed the importance of organized supply chains, dedicated trading platforms, and community training in sustainable harvesting and post-harvest handling.

He warned that climate variability, including hailstorms that damage juvenile cones before May, is increasingly affecting seed production, making adaptation measures and continued research into seed biology and regeneration essential.

He added that since Chilghoza is a wild forest resource rather than a cultivated crop, productivity improvements must be aligned with sustainable forest management practices.

For policymakers, China’s experience highlights the importance of building a strong, well-regulated seed sector supported by continuous investment and scientific research.

Ensuring the availability of high-quality, certified seed at affordable prices remains essential for improving agricultural productivity and strengthening food security over the long term.

Credit: INP-WealthPk